Thursday, July 9, 2015

A Pharma Stock worth a Buy for Short Term.....

I have been tracking PLETHICO PHARMA for some time now.

Check the chart below :


The stock has a tendency to make v.sharp up moves each time it breaks above the falling trendline.

And this time too.....(as in the past two occurrences) it can be very much possible.

One more plus this time is - The stock made a double bottom instead of lower bottom as earlier.

This should be a signal to correction complete and sideways or uptrend beginning.



To Summarize :


 PLETHICO PHARMA- B@ 29-30, keeping SL/26 on closing basis.

- Trendline violation leads to violent movements
- Previous two occurrence it has proved as per chart.
- First Double Bottom confirms the limited downside.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

MASTEK - A stock opportunity you can't MISS ! Incredible move possibility

Friends,

After over 15 years of my experience with Technical Analysis, I find a stock today which has broken out of consolidation after equal years !

Events such as this are RARE and one can't afford to miss them out NO MATTER WHAT!


I request you all to just check on this incredible chart on the monthly basis.

Not only does is confirm a breakout move with huge volumes builtup but there is a BLUE SKY zone much much higher ahead for this stock with practically NO RESISTANCES !

If one is patient investor and holds on to this counter over next 2 YEARS then one can be rewarded with phenomenal returns.

All I can say is - GO OUT AND GRAB IT.

Cheers,
PREMAL PAREKH
05/03/2015 

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Which Stocks are Outperforming the markets right now?

Dear Friends,

Perhaps the most difficult task for traders and investors has been "How do I find stocks outperforming broader market in a given scenario? ".

Well, the answer lies in discovering the same as under :

a) Track all the stocks daily and compare there movement with the market.
b) Compare there percentage rise v/s market movement.
c) Check the sectors in favour and pick right ones from the sector.

Aaah ! That seems quite difficult to do manually.....isn't it?

But, there is a solution to all this in tracking Point and Figure charting. Also, with the right kind of database management system, and queries one can generate a list of out-performance consistently. To put in one word we name it - 

"RELATIVE STRENGTH" - RS

(Mind you - Its all together different then the famous RSI indicator in Technical Analysis)

Well, to start with this I am naming a few stocks we should watch for in coming weeks. I am sure one should be able to discover gems easily from this list.

Buy on small pullbacks:

1) Decolight Ceramics - Near 8.50
2) Redington - Near 85
3) VijayaBank - Near 58-60.
4) Videocon Ind - Near 214.

Looking for safety? and good returns? :

1) BL Kashyap - Near Rs.10
2) Assam Company - Near Rs.7.30-7.40
3) IFCI - Near Rs.33
4) MoserBaer -Near Rs.7

Wishing you all the v.best,

Cheers,
PREMAL


Friday, July 15, 2011

PnF Charting Glossary

Bearish CatapultA triple top sell signal followed by a lower top and then a double bottom sell signal. It is a bearish pattern.
Bearish Resistance LineThis particular trend line is also called the Downtrend Line or often written as BRL for short, and as the word suggests, a stock (or index or ETF or mutual fund or commodity) that is trading below its Bearish Resistance Line is trending lower and is in what we would consider an overall negative or bearish trend. When a stock is trading below the Bearish Resistance Line we say it is on I-95 South. The Bearish Resistance Line is a 45-degree line, well, actually the reciprocal of the 45-degree line. I think it’s a 135-degree line. Since this is not a Geometry course suffice it to say it’s the opposite of the bullish support line -- Interstate 95 South or a downward sloping line to the right. To draw the BRL, you merely go to the highest column of X’s on the chart, after a sell signal has been given, and place a mark in the box directly above that highest X. From there you go down and over a box, make another mark, then continue this process until your Bearish Resistance Line has been drawn. If the given security vehicle is trading below its Bearish Resistance Line, in an overall downtrend, we would tend to restrict positions taken to shorts. Similar to the Bullish Support Line, it is paramount that you monitor whether the security has penetrated its Bearish Resistance Line, as this would signal a change from what had been a negative trend, to a bullish trend; this would then prompt a change from focusing on shorts to one focused on longs.
Bearish Signal ReversedSeries of lower tops and lower bottoms that, without a period of accumulation, the stock reverses the pattern with a double top buy signal. To qualify for this pattern, there must be at least seven columns. This is a bullish pattern.
Bearish TriangleA series of lower tops and higher bottoms occurring at the same time. The chart then comes to a point at which is must break one way or the other. If the breakout is a double bottom, it is considered a bearish triangle pattern. This pattern must be at least 5 columns wide to qualify.
Box SizeIn the Point & Figure methodology, a standardized scaling method for sizing each box is applied. Stocks between 0 and $5 are plotted at $.25 per box. Stocks between $5 and $20 area plotted at $.50 per box. Stocks between $20 and $100 area plotted at 1 point per box. Stocks between $100 and $200 are plotted at $2 points per box. Stocks above $200 are plotted at $4 points per box. These scales can be modified using the Dorsey, Wright SmartChart function to either speed up or slow down a chart.
Bullish CatapultA triple top buy signal followed by a higher bottom and then a double top buy signal. It is a bullish pattern.
Bullish Percent"The bullish percent is a measure of the percent of stocks in any universe that are on a Point & Figure buy signal. This percentage is plotted on a grid from 0% to 100%. X’s represent that more stocks are going on buy signals and the offensive team is on the field for that market or sector. O’s represent that more stocks are going on sell signals and the defensive team is on the field for that market or sector. The two lines of demarcation on a bullish percent chart are 30% and 70%. The 30% level and below is the “Green Zone” or low risk area. The 70% level and above is the “Red Zone” or high risk area. Focus on your field position and column for an assessment of risk in that particular market. Bullish percents are a measure of risk in the market, not the direction an index should move. "
Bullish Signal ReversedSeries of higher tops and higher bottoms that, without a period of accumulation, the stock reverses the pattern with a double bottom sell signal. To qualify for this pattern, there must be at least seven columns. This is a bearish pattern.
Bullish Support LineSimilarly known as the Uptrend Line or often referred to in our work as the BSL for short. If the stock (or other investment vehicle) is trading above its Bullish Support Line it is said to be in an overall uptrend. DWA often refers to this line as Interstate 95 North. The Bullish Support Line is always a 45-degree line, which is upward sloping to the right. Drawing this Uptrend Line is very easy – once the first buy signal is given, off the bottom or after a period of accumulation (moving sideways), you then go to the lowest-reaching column of O’s in that pattern on the chart and begin drawing the trend line by placing a mark in the box directly below the lowest O. You then move up and over a box and place a second mark, and repeat this process which will result in an upward sloping 45 degree line – this is your Bullish Support Line. In Point & Figure Charting this will always be same. In Bar Charts, practitioners tend to just connect lines of varying degrees. I feel more comfortable with the same line all the time. As a general rule of thumb, if the security is trading above its Bullish Support Line, in an overall uptrend, your trades should be limited to long positions. It is also crucial to watch for a violation, or penetration, of the Bullish Support Line, as that would be a sign that the overall trend is changing from positive to negative – or from an uptrend to a downtrend. A violation of the Bullish Support Line is a “call to action”.
Bullish TriangleA series of lower tops and higher bottoms occurring at the same time. The chart then comes to a point at which is must break one way or the other. If the breakout is a double top, it is considered a bullish triangle pattern. This pattern must be at least 5 columns wide to qualify.
Chart NumbersNumbers in a chart stand for the months of the year. For instance, 1 would signify January, 2 would represent February, 3 for March and so forth. A, B and C are used to denote October, November and December. The numbers at the bottom of the chart note a change from one year to the next — 05 (2005) to 06 (2006). Time is not a consideration in the evaluation of a chart; it is just used as a reference point.
Chart PatternsIn the Point & Figure methodology there are eleven types of patterns, but for all intents and purposes, nine of these patterns are merely derivatives from the two most basic patterns – that of the double top and double bottom.
ChartingA Point & Figure chart is constructed by using the daily high and low prices. A chart can only move one direction a day, continuing in the current column. If the chart can not continue in the current column, then check for a reversal. A reversal on a Point & Figure chart needs at least 3 boxes. A Point & Figure chart will not necessarily make a movement every day and this differs from a Bar Chart which makes a mark each day. Never in a Point & Figure chart will you see X's in a column of O's or vice versa.
Color Coding X's and O'sRed is used to designate O's that were added to the chart the previous day while Green is used to designate X's that were added to the chart the previous day. Blue X's or O's represent intraday movement.
Double BottomA column of O's exceeds the previous column of O's. The simplest of all buy signals and suggests supply is getting stronger.
Double TopA column of X's exceeds the previous column of X's. The simplest of all buy signals and suggests demand is getting stronger.
Dow Jones Corporate Bond IndexThe Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index (DJCORP) is our primary corporate bond fixed income indicator. This index is comprised of 96 investment grade issues that are divided into the Industrial, Financial and Utility/Telecom sectors. As well, they are further divided by maturity with each of the sectors represented in the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year maturity. All issues are equally weighted and strict rules for liquidity, rating and issuers are applied. The index is reviewed monthly and maintained by Ryan Labs. We use the price return value for the index, instead of the total return index because a total return index will have a positive bias and we feel that evaluating the index itself is more appropriate for our needs of determining strength or weakness in the corporate bond area.
ETFExchange Traded Funds are a class of equity vehicles commonly referred to as ETFs. ETFs are baskets of equities, similar to mutual funds, that trade much more like stocks. A mutual fund is managed by a portfolio manager and you don’t often know what equities are held, or in what proportions they have been purchased. ETFs, on the other hand, are transparent in the sense that the investor always has access to the holdings within any ETF product. With an ETF the basket of stocks are designed to closely mirror the movement of an index, such as the S&P 500. Unlike mutual funds, ETFs can be purchased and sold throughout the course of a day, stop and limit orders can be placed, they can be sold short, and they may also be margined. There are hundreds of ETFs now available, tracking a myriad of different market and sector indices. Some of the different indices tracked by ETFs including the following major market indices, sectors, commodities, and international markets.
Exchange Traded FundExchange Traded Funds are a class of equity vehicles commonly referred to as ETFs. ETFs are baskets of equities, similar to mutual funds, that trade much more like stocks. A mutual fund is managed by a portfolio manager and you don’t often know what equities are held, or in what proportions they have been purchased. ETFs, on the other hand, are transparent in the sense that the investor always has access to the holdings within any ETF product. With an ETF the basket of stocks are designed to closely mirror the movement of an index, such as the S&P 500. Unlike mutual funds, ETFs can be purchased and sold throughout the course of a day, stop and limit orders can be placed, they can be sold short, and they may also be margined. There are hundreds of ETFs now available, tracking a myriad of different market and sector indices. Some of the different indices tracked by ETFs including the following major market indices, sectors, commodities, and international markets.
Favored Sector StatusFavored Sector Status is a concept we use to gauge the relative health or the potential magnitude of movement within a sector. To get the concept straight in your mind, think about the most important longer term attributes you want to see in a stock that you are going to buy. If I were culling down a universe of stocks down to the most technically sound ones three criteria I would choose would be relative strength signal, relative strength column, and overall trend of the stock. Stocks that are above their bullish support lines, have positive strength signals versus the market and have their relative strength charts in a column of X's, are often the leaders of the market. That is, these stocks usually carry the market in advances, and hold up better in down markets. The Favored Sector concept builds upon these traits to identify those sectors whose members are showing positive technical action versus negative technical action. Four charts are used to determined Favored Sector Status; RSX Chart, RSP Chart, PT Chart, and the Sector Relative Strength chart. For each chart that is in a column of X's (a buy signal for the RSX chart), the sector is awarded a point. If a sector has 3 or 4 points it is considered Favored. An Average sector has 2 points positive and an Unfavored sector only has 1 or 0 points. Focus on those sectors with a Favored status as these groups are most likely to outperform the market.
Fund ScoreA rating system that ranges from 0 to 6. The score includes the 5 Basic Attributes that is similar to how we rate Stocks. The score also includes additional parameters, including chart patterns, Moving Averages, Momentum and Percentile Ranking for the fund versus several Market and Peer Groups over several time periods. The Score uses proprietary weightings, but adds up to reflect one-third trend chart attributes and two-thirds Relative Strength attributes. In general, a score of 3 or higher is what you want to focus new buying and holdings on.
High-Low IndexThis index measures the number of new highs made on an exchange divided by the number of new highs plus new lows. This number is then recorded on a ten day moving average. The ten day moving average is then plotted on a grid from 0% to 100%. We look at the Percent of Stocks Above their 10 Week Moving Average and the NYSE High-Low Index in conjunction with one another. Buy signals are given when the index goes below 30% and reverses up, as well as when a column of Xs exceeds a previous column of Xs. Sell signals are given when the index goes above 70% and reverses down, as well as when a column of Os exceeds a previous column of Os. Moves below the 10% level are considered extremely washed out.
Horizontal Price ObjectiveWhen a notable base has formed on a chart, we prefer to calculate the price objective using a horizontal count. That, of course, does not preclude you from also using the vertical count. The Horizontal Price Objective is determined by measuring the size of the base that the stock (or other investment vehicle) has created and broken out from – basically, by measuring the width of this base. The base of the formation must be unbroken. In other words, you must be able to count horizontally across the columns filled with X's and O's without any spaces in between. You find the widest part of the base that is unbroken to count. There are no minimum columns required but you will see many charts where a large area of accumulation was created and then the chart broke out. It is these types of charts where a horizontal count is most effective. In essence, the base acts as the powder keg – the more it builds up, the more explosive the breakout can be; or as the saying goes, the bigger the base, the bigger the move up (or down) out of that base. For an upside, bullish target using a horizontal count, once a buy signal is given, count across the base the commodity has built. Multiply the number of columns across the formation by 3, and then multiply that product by the value per box. Add this number to the bottom, or lowest point of the base formation. This is your horizontal price target. For calculating the bearish horizontal count, you want to see a sell signal and then instead of multiplying the number of columns in the base by 3, you multiply by 2. Then after multiplying that product by the box size, the end result is subtracted from the highest point on the base formation.
MatrixA service provided from Dorsey, Wright & Associates that allows the user to see and create his or her own relative strength comparisons between a number of different investment vehicles. For instance, a portfolio of 30 stocks can be compared to one another with the stock having the most relative strength buy signals against others in the assigned group receives the highest ranking.
MomentumAt Dorsey, Wright & Associates, we use measures of momentum and overbought/oversold readings to aid in our interpretation of a stock. The measures are computed by our database, and can be accessed by clients. We have three different momentum calculations: daily, weekly, and monthly momentum’s. Daily momentum is a very short-term trading tool. Following weekly momentum is very helpful when timing trades as well, but it gives a slightly longer horizon. It is an intermediate tool as changes to positive or negative weekly momentum last seven weeks on average. The monthly momentum is used more to highlight or signify a longer-term turnaround. Using weekly momentum as an example, this momentum is basically a one week moving average compared to a five week moving average. The moving average is also exponentially weighted and smoothed. The exact calculation is proprietary. When the one week moving average crosses above the five-week, we say the weekly momentum has turned positive. This would suggest higher prices for the stock. When the one week moving average crosses below the five-week, we say the weekly momentum has turned negative. This would suggest a pullback in the stock, or a sideways consolidation is due. Momentum calculations are used as a supplement, not a substitution for, the Point & Figure chart. When we get down to evaluating the individual stock chart, the three most important parts are the relative strength, trend, and the individual patterns. Once we have determined that those three things are positive then we look at the short-term timing tools like weekly momentum. Let's say, for example, that we have a stock that is bullish on everything but the weekly momentum has flipped negative. That suggests to us to place our order for new positions on a pullback. Again, the momentum doesn't change our opinion of the stock, but rather it helps us time the trade.
Mutual Fund Box Sizes"The average fund trades at $15 a share. Because mutual funds generally move slower than an individual issue we have to “speed up” the chart. Instead of using a scale of ½ point per box, we instead use a default scale, also called the Intermediate scale, of 20 cents per box. The short-term chart is half that size at 10 cents a box. The long-term chart follows the stock scale and is at 50 cents a box for this price range. The box sizes differ to produce a sensitivity range that helps you in evaluating that mutual fund. Smaller box sizes make the chart more sensitive also increasing signal noise. Bigger box sizes reduce sensitivity and reduce noise. "
NYSE Bullish PercentThis is our major market indicator which tells us whether to be on the offense or defense. It is calculated by dividing the number of NYSE stocks trading on point and figure buy signals by the total listed on the Exchange. The percent of stocks on buy signals in is then plotted on a grid from 0% to 100%, where each box equals 2%. Levels above 70% are generally considered overbought, and below 30% are considered oversold. The best buy signals come when the NYSE Bullish Percent goes below 30% and then reverses up (must reverse 6%). The best sell signals come when the indicator moves above 70% and then reverses below 70%. The most important concept to keep in mind is field position and what team is on the field. When the NYSE Bullish Percent is in X's, the offensive team is on the field and wealth accumulation strategies are the focus. Conversely, when the NYSE Bullish Percent is in O's, the defensive team is on the field and wealth preservation strategies are the focus.
Peer Relative StrengthJust as the name implies, peer relative strength is a measure of how one security is doing compared to an index of its peers or stocks from the same sector. The daily calculation of peer relative strength is to divide the price of the stock by the corresponding DWA Sector Index. The resulting figure is then plotted on a relative strength chart. A double top buy signal suggests the stock will outperform the peer group longer term and a double bottom sell signal suggests the stock will under perform the peer group longer term. For shorter term guidance we look at the column of the Peer Relative Strength Chart. A column of X’s would denote positive near term relative strength while a column of O’s would denote negative near term relative strength.
Percent of Stocks Above Their 10 Week Moving AverageA measure of the percent of stocks within a universe that are above their 10 week or 50 day moving average. Charted on the same type of grid as the bullish percents. Buy signals are given when the index goes below 30% and reverses up, as well as when a column of Xs exceeds a previous column of Xs. Sell signals are given when the index goes above 70% and reverses down, as well as when a column of Os exceeds a previous column of Os. This is considered a short term indicator and works best when the signal is moving in concert with the signal of the High-Low Index.
Percent of Stocks Above Their 30 Week Moving AverageThe number of stocks above their 30 week moving average divided by the total number of stocks on the index (calculated for the NYSE and OTC). This percentage is then plotted on a grid that goes from 100% to 0%. The 30% level and below is the “Green zone” or oversold territory while the 70% level and above is the “Red zone” or overbought territory. We look at both the column and the signal on this chart. Dan Sullivan of the Chartist found that when the Percent of 30 goes above 80% and then falls below 60% it will see 40% before it sees 80% again and has worked each time it has happened.
Price ObjectivePrice objectives are a key component in determining the risk-reward ratio of a trade. There are two types of price objectives, the horizontal price objective and the vertical price objective. Suffice to say, the concept behind calculating price objectives resides in the science of ballistics – how far a bullet will travel after its initial impulse, based on the size of its powder keg, the size and attitude of its barrel, air temperature, and other germane factors. Both bullish and bearish price objectives can be ascertained for a stock depending on its last signal. The vertical price objective is the most often used but the horizontal can be very useful when the chart allows for this type of count. Just because a security has reached its price objective doesn’t mean it can’t continue further. The overall trend is our main guiding factor but the price objective is very useful for initially determining a risk-reward ratio.
Relative StrengthRelative strength is one of the cornerstones of Dorsey, Wright’s technical research – it is an integral part of our equity research, not only on a stock-specific basis, but also with our sector analysis. Over the years, we have continued to develop and expand our RS work. We now have numerous tools at our disposal. These same tools that work extremely well in the equity market are transferable to indices, commodities, mutual funds and ETFs alike. Relative strength, as the name implies, measures how one security is doing compared to another. For example, how Microsoft is performing compared to the S&P 500, or how the U.S. Dollar is doing relative to the Euro. In essence, this comparison allows you to determine which security is outperforming the other. The implication is that you invest in the vehicle that is outperforming the other, be it the market, another stock or commodity, etc. RS steers you toward the out performer and away from the underperformer; and helps you to invest in, and stay with, that winner for as long as the RS chart suggests out performance. One simply focuses their buying on those securities exemplifying the strongest RS, and either sell or sell short those vehicles that exhibit the weakest RS. Calculating relative strength is quite easy. You simply take the price of one security and divide it by the other (the security you want to compare); then take the resulting number and plot it on a Point & Figure chart. The same basic chart rules apply for an RS chart, in keeping with the three-box reversal method, as they do with our trend charts. The scale and pattern, per se are not important, but rather the signal and column on the RS chart. A relative strength chart is considered to be on a buy signal if the chart is on a double top. A relative strength chart is considered to be on a sell signal if the chart is on a double bottom. Because relative strength signals last on average about two years, we also will look at the column of the relative strength chart for near term guidance. When looking at an index to index relative strength chart and ETF relative strength charts, we do look to the column of the chart for guidance rather than the signal because these baskets of stocks move slower than individual names.
Risk-RewardThe process of evaluating how much risk you will take on compared to how much reward you can expect to gain on any given trade. Or said another way, how many points could the stock fall if the trade doesn’t work out, versus how many points could you expect to see the stock rise if the trade does in fact go in your favor. Typically when evaluating Risk-Reward, we like to see a two to one ratio, at a minimum. In other words, for every point at risk, we want to have two points potential reward. To determine the "reward" portion of the calculation we look to significant resistance areas on the chart, the top of the trading band, or price objectives. For the "risk" portion of the calculation, determine your stop loss point by either a sell signal or a violation of a major support area like a bullish support line.
Sector Bell CurveA composite picture of where each sector is on its bullish percent chart. To get this composite picture, the vertical axis of 0% to 100% on the bullish percent chart is flipped to the horizontal axis and then the first four letters of each sector are plotted to get an overall feel for where most sectors are on their bullish percent charts. A bell curve that is skewed to the right hand side suggests higher risk while a bell curve that is skewed to the left hand side suggests lower risk in the market.
Selling ClimaxThe selling climax can signal that a stock has made an intermediate term bottom. Such a climax can provide a reason to “bottom fish” a beaten up stock. The selling climax occurs when a stock makes a new yearly low (52 week) during the week, then closes up for the week. Such action in a stock suggests that the selling pressure has reached a climactic level – when it makes the new yearly low, then has likely dried up. When such a selling climax occurs, it often can signal that a bottom has been made in the stock. For those more aggressive in nature, this climax can provide a buying opportunity.
ShakeoutA stock forms two tops at a level but does not actually give a double top. This is followed by a double bottom to "shakeout" the weak holders of the stock. The action point to buy on the shakeout pattern is the first three box reversal up after the sell signal. The shakeout pattern is considered complete when the triple top is broken. This pattern must occur above the bullish support line to qualify. Overall a bullish pattern.
SmartChartAn exclusive DWA service allowing the user to customize the box size of their Point & Figure chart as well as create unique relative strength charts of stock vs. stock, stock vs. fund, stock vs. ETF, etc.
Supply and DemandThe difference between supply and demand has been the controlling price factor throughout the ages of mankind. Only the medium of exchange has differed. If we have something that nobody wants, we call it worthless. If everybody wants it we call it priceless -- supply and demand. It is the weight of public opinion backed by action or inaction that creates values. Fear, hope, facts, rumors and greed are the motivating influences. These are the creative powers of supply and demand. It is said that basically real values will eventually exert themselves. The question arises: what is the real value of a stock? The obvious answer lies in the current market price, for it is here where the minds of both the seller and buyer have met. It is here where supply and demand have both been satisfied. As long as these forces remain in balance the price remains constant. Whenever the balance shifts in favor of either, then to that extent will the market price rise or fall. In the final analysis, it is the balance of power between supply and demand that creates market values. All other factors remain irrelevant. The Point & Figure chart is the only instrument that will accurately register the balance of power between these opposing forces.
Technical AttributeA ranking system that is applied to all stocks using both trend and relative strength analysis. There are five criteria measured; relative strength signal versus the market, relative strength chart column versus the market, relative strength signal versus the peer group, relative strength chart column versus the peer group, and trend. Stocks with at least 3 out of 5 technical attributes positive are considered to be "solid citizens" and this is where you want to focus new purchases and holdings. Stocks with 2 or fewer technical attributes do not have the odds stacked in their favor to be good performers in the portfolio and are most vulnerable to declines.
Trading BandFor every stock, index, ETF, commodity and mutual fund we take ten weeks worth of data and put that information, along with a volatility number, into a statistical bell curve formal. This gives us an intermediate term "trading band" for the stock. When a stock gets near the top of that ten week trading band or near the 100% overbought level, it tells us to expect a pullback to at least normal. When a stock gets near the bottom of the ten week trading band or near the 100% oversold level, it tells us to expect a rally to at least normal. The stock in question can move the position on the trading band in one of three ways. The stock's price can change, the curve can shift as weeks are deleted and added to the calcuation, or a combination of the two. This is a shorter term, secondary indicator that is used to help better time a purchase or sale after trend and relative strength analysis has been performed.
Trend LineOne of the main premises of technical analysis is that prices tend to trend. Therefore, one of the main purposes of a chart is to help in the identification of the overall trend of a given stock, index, mutual fund, ETF or commodity – and to then play the direction of that trend for as long as it stays in force. In the Point & Figure methodology, there are two main trend lines that are used: the Bullish Support Line and the Bearish Resistance Line. It is these trend lines that allow us to easily identify whether the vehicle is in an overall “uptrend”, or whether its main trend is negative, and in a “downtrend”. Trend lines are very easily drawn using the P&F method, whereas bar charts and other methods can be very subjective in nature. In the case of either of these two lines, it is uncanny how they can act like brick walls, with the security able to repeatedly bounce off the line and resume its trending bias. As well, the overall trend, be it an uptrend or downtrend, can stay in force for months, if not years.
Triple BottomA column of O's exceeds two previous columns of O's or levels of resistance. There can be quadruple bottoms, quintuple bottoms, etc. A bearish pattern.
Triple TopA column of X's exceeds two previous columns of X's or levels of resistance. There can be quadruple tops, quintuple tops, etc. A bullish pattern.
Triple WitchingTriple Witching occurs when stock options, futures and futures options all expire on the same day. It is actually now Quadruple Witching as stock futures also expire on the same day. This phenomenon occurs four times a year; the third Friday in March, June, September and December. These weeks can often bring with it a lot of volatility. One strategy for triple Witching weeks is if you want to buy a stock, put the order in a couple of points below the market. If you want to sell a stock, put the order in a couple of points below the market. You must get executed on both trades as the market often experiences heightened volatility during Triple Witching weeks.
Vertical Price ObjectiveThe most common price objective used and is the default price objective used at the top of charts on the DWA website. To calculate the vertical price objective, look to the column that has the first buy signal off the bottom (following the last sell signal) and count the number of X's in it. You wait for the reversal down into a column of O's before counting the number of X's to ensure there will be no more X's added to the column (otherwise the count is considered to be “incomplete”). Once you have counted the X's, multiply by 3 (for the P&F three-box reversal method) and then multiply that product by the value per box. Add this result to the bottom X, and that is your count or price target. To calculate the downside, bearish target using a vertical price objective, the process is essentially the same, just in reverse with one minor difference. Count the number of O’s in the column after the first sell signal off the top, then multiplying that by 2 (instead of 3), and then multiplying by the value of each box. Then subtract that number from the top O’s price, and that is your bearish price objective.
VolumePoint & Figure charts do not take into consideration volume. We feel volume is reflected in the price of the stock. If there is large buying volume, this will work to push the price higher and thus will be reflected on the chart and vice versa.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

NITIN FIRE has the fire to RUN>>>>>>




A perfect BULLISH TRIANGLE pattern seen on this counter.

The stock is about to breaking out and a spike above 106 will take it extremely fast to 120 levels.

Also a clear uptrend is seen on the charts since feb'2011 on the counter.

STRONG BUY recommended.

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Nifty Analysis : DONT MISS !

Please check the attached chart.

As seen on the chart we can conclude the following :

1) From June 2006 to Sept 2007 (14 months) the market was in a sideways trending
move between a band of 2800 to 4800

2) A BREAKOUT from this band in Sept 2007 had taken our markets right from 4800
to 6300 with consistent weekly GAINS.

3) Similarly from AUG 2009 to SEPT 2010 (13 months) the market was in a sideways
trending move in a band of 4400 to 5500.

4) Recently at the extreme right of this chart we clearly see a WEEKLY CHANNEL
BREAKOUT.

THIS MEANS - 6300 CAN BE TAKEN OUT V.V.EASILY NOW AS THE FIRST TARGET OVER THE
NEXT 3-5 MONTHS.
Cheers,
PREMAL

Monday, March 1, 2010

What will be benefitted with BUDGET 2010?

Friends,
POTS of data has been feed on us post budget.
Someone is taking to GDP, Growth etc. while someone is suggesting us
whats gonna be expensive and what cheaper. But who is going to tell us
what sectors are benefitted the most this budget ?
Well, you have reached the right place with this post to find out. CONGRATS!
My analysis says two sectors are gonna rock no matter what the fundamentals suggest us internationally or nationally.

1) IT

2) HEALTHCARE

The most obvious reasons you might ask me ------> WHY?

1)
A population of 2000+ in Indian village will have a BANK now !
Wonderfull. But, how will the banks be able to do this even if RBI
extends full support for this annoucement. I am confident that IT is
the solution to maximise this reach. Big big contracts for IT companies
are going to comeup in the next 1 year domestically.

2) Everyone
is shouting GREECE, PORTUGAL, SPAIN these days. Well what happens if
this becomes a reality? First, weak EURO. Which equals to STRONG
DOLLAR. And then what does strong dollar mean ? --------> THE
JACKPOT ---- HIGHER PROFITS FOR OUR IT COMPANIES.

3) Its nice to
see the FM extend us more disposable income with IT limits raised. So
now we are either gonaa

1) Consume , 2) Invest in stock markets OR 3)
Bank deposit this money. This are the most direct 3 ways one can manage
this more cash now.

4) Healthcare is gonna rock as it is directly
connected with your disposible income. Since budget 2010 has given us
more cash people are gonna ask for better facilities in this sector and
most of them would even consider having mediclaim policies to cover it
up with a nominal premium. I am suggesting you all to keep a check on
Fortis, Apollo etc. They are a good investment for 1 year horizon.

Friends, I am not an expert on budget analysis but atleast I am able to spot whats in it for me as a investor of stock markets.
I will appreciate your comments on this post with your view.

Cheers,PREMAL

Saturday, January 9, 2010

BHARAT BIJLEE - Ye Bijlee CHAMKE GI !!!

Friends,
 
Take a look on this chart. The technicals have turned extremly bullish. The resons are,
 
1) Broken out of consolidation price range.
 
2) MACD crossing ZERO LINE
 
3) Volumes have started to build up.
 
One can buy this stock with SL-1052 & Target - 1252.
 
Enjoy making smart money,
 
Cheers,
PREMAL

SILVER.... LET IT SHINE FOR U !

Friends,
 
Check the chart of silver. After a correction it is striking back with vegence. I am bullish for it in the short term & think it can easily cross 30500 now.
 
Reasons on chart :
 
1) Bull engulf on WEEKLY CHART
2) MACD Crossover above 0 line
3) Rising RSI
4) Resistance of 27600 broken on DAILY CHART.
 
Buy it in MCX to leverage your positions and enjoy good profits. Target 30600 in about 3-6 months.
 
Enjoy,
PREMAL

Monday, December 28, 2009

GOLD - looks set for a bounce !

 
Attached find the gold chart.
 
I see 4 reasons to buy it at this time.
 
1) Falling trendline is arrested. Downside seems limited & uptrend may begin.
 
2) 61.8% retracement from the top is completed at 16600.
 
3) RSI - falling for sometime now is crossing over
 
4) Stochastics - D line is 28 which suggests more shorts then long - so is oversold.
 
Concludes to a reasonable bounce in near future.
 
Cheers,
PREMAL

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Alembic - Take this pill for sweet profits.....

Friends,
 
A chart which is showing many reasons to buy it here.
 
1) Higher Bottom reversal
2) MACD crossing to positive zone
3) RSI - Turning positive
4) Stochastics - Oversold & marching upwards.
5) Increased volumes
 
The stock is one which can be bought at current price - 46, SL- 43, T-56, RR - 1:3
 
Health sector is also current flavour of the markets.
 
Enjoy,
 
PREMAL
 

WIPRO - Marching ahead with self strength.

Friends,
 
The stock which keeps marching come what may is seen in this chart. Some theoratical points to consider on chart are,
 
1) Dow Theory - Higher tops & Higher bottoms !  Trendline is intact for long now.
2) A breakout is clearly seen on the upside.
3) MACD & RSI are both positive.
4) Huge increased volumes
5) IT sector seems to be strong.
 
I am of the view that one can buy WIPRO for a period of 2 months at current price - 674, SL-652, T-780.
 
Risk/Return is coming to an attractive - 1:5
 
Enjoy making money,
 
PREMAL